Weather Report.

Friday evening

Analysing the weather conditions for the UNC line of flight from Folkestone to the northeast of England on Friday evening I concluded that racing on Saturday was possible but not certain.  The south east of England was forecast to be clear under sunshine and broken cloud. The main concern was the conditions approximately north of the Kingston upon Hull area along the east coast and inland. Rain showers and heavy cloud were forecast to affect this region on Saturday afternoon.

Saturday morning

As forecast conditions were first class at Folkestone early on Saturday morning affording the birds that essential good start. Blue skies and broken cloud all the way to about Grimsby /Kingston upon Hull area, giving about 180 miles of good weather. Satellite images and the fact that liberations were being affected at the Ripon race point confirm this. Added to that visibility was 12 miles plus. Cloud was identified over the north east (See satellite image) which was the only problem as far as the flight path was concerned. I was bearing in mind the Met Office forecast for showers to affect this area during the afternoon. This is the main reason for delaying liberation to wait and see what actually developed over the north east of England. I outlined the situation to Steve and made clear I was not happy with the situation and needed more time to gather data. Obviously we had to take into consideration wind direction and flying time if Steve decided to liberate. On accessing the Met radar rainfall image at 11:00 hours I made the observation that the main cluster of rain showers forecast to affect the north east was travelling northwards over the north sea away from the east coast. (See satellite image attached) Also I received an update for the cloud to break over that area during the afternoon. With 180 miles of good weather and the recent weather updates I felt a race was possible. The next observation at 14:00 hours and the most important showed that heavy cloud had moved over the top end of the flight path from the North Sea)which obviously had a major bearing on the race. This development was not forecast and was the main reason in my opinion for creating difficult flying conditions.

Summary

To summarise the cloud that moved over far north east from the North Sea failed to break up and became an obstruction to the pigeons as they tried to negotiate in difficult flying conditions. Normally when pigeons have raced in good weather for most of their journey home they will finish in poor weather conditions. As we are all aware this was not the case in this race for reasons at this point in time are not totally clear. I confirm that our organisation racing in the south of England on Saturday also experienced erratic racing. My own organisation racing from Kingsdown in the West Country with a westerly tail wind was a typical example. Weather conditions were perfect white cumulus clouds and blue skies all the way. Where you would expect velocities in the 1600 ypm only a hand full of pigeons recorded in the low 1400’s. As other organisations also experienced peculiar racing with some their birds taking most of  the day to return. Obviously another weather phenomenon was present, possibly atmospherics being  a possible answer.

I hope that this report throws some light on the weather situation and goes some way to making the assessment on why the race turned out the way it did. Both Steve and I are extremely disappointed as our main aim has always been to return the members birds to their lofts to which we both give 100%. Nobody wants a bad race especially the UNC.

Steve Appleby

F Mc Cluskey President